Published research is leaning heavily bearish on crude, with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the US–Iran ceasefire seen as the dominant catalysts.
The consensus across recent analyst notes is that Brent has already slipped below $79–80/bbl as markets absorb returning Iranian barrels, and the prompt spread has collapsed from nearly $10 to about $0.20. One camp points to a near-term supply surge of 80–120 million barrels of stranded Gulf crude hitting the market. Several published price paths cluster around Brent drifting to $80/bbl by end-2026 and $75 by 2027, with WTI a few dollars below. Some tactical research is shorting bounces above $80, targeting $70 and possibly $65.
A contrarian thread of recent research pushes back on the long view. These analysts argue underinvestment, inventory drawdowns and persistent geopolitical risk set a higher floor — with one prominent strategist framing $85/bbl as the new investment floor and others modeling a ~$80 five-year average. A minority view also flags tail-risk spikes above $155 if Hormuz disruptions resume.