Crude oil's near-term bias has flipped bearish on Iran-deal optimism, but a stubborn camp of researchers is still calling for higher prices on supply tightness.
The dominant published view this week is that progress toward a US-Iran deal and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has already taken $3–$5 off a barrel of Brent and WTI. Some analysts argue another 20–30% downside is possible if a ceasefire holds.
The contrarian thread is louder than usual. Several research teams point to severe inventory drawdowns — Cushing stocks near 25 million barrels, well under five-year averages — and argue prices need to stay high or climb further to coax supply back. One published target calls current levels a buying opportunity, with $100 Brent in view. Another forecast path peaks near $97.80 WTI in Q2 2026. And if Hormuz flows don't resume by late July, one camp warns Brent could spike to $120–130.
A lone structural-bear view stands apart, targeting a multi-year return to $40–50 on demand destruction.