Published research this week is overwhelmingly bullish on crude, with the Israel-Iran conflict and risks around the Strait of Hormuz cited as the dominant driver.
The consensus across recent analyst notes is that Hormuz disruption is the primary catalyst for elevated prices, and that even after any ceasefire, damaged infrastructure could keep supply tight. One camp argues that if the Strait stays closed through July, Brent and WTI could be pushed back toward $130. Long-dated December 2027 contracts sitting near cycle highs are flagged as evidence the market is taking long-term supply risk seriously. A more nuanced thread points to Saudi Aramco's larger-than-expected price cut on Arab Light to Asia as a sign of some easing in physical tightness.
Tactical views are more mixed. Some recently published analysis sees downside if shipping constraints ease and the war premium fades. A contrarian structural view projects WTI mean-reverting toward $89 by late 2026. Another cyclical take argues an $80–$100 band is sustainable, with a return to $60 unlikely.