Oil research this week was overwhelmingly pointed in one direction: the Strait of Hormuz disruption is the largest physical energy shock on record, and the buffers absorbing it are nearly spent.
Across the published work, analysts described roughly 11–12 million barrels per day of Gulf supply offline, with inventory drawdowns and coordinated reserve releases now close to exhaustion. Base-case forecasts for Brent clustered around $100 through year-end, with scenario work pointing to peaks of $120–$145 — and one path toward $135 in August — if the strait stays shut. Each extra month of closure was modeled as roughly $5 added to Q3 and $15 to Q4 averages. Knock-on calls included European diesel and jet fuel staying tight, and Dutch gasoline near €2.82/litre.
A contrarian thread argued that a diplomatic resolution within weeks could let supply normalize, with Brent drifting toward $80 by year-end and into the $70s through 2027. Even those views conceded a structurally higher floor given depleted stocks. Higher oil was also flagged as a leading risk to the US macro outlook.