Published research on crude oil is split, but the dominant near-term lean is bullish — driven by supply disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz.
The bull case, as several analysts argue, hinges on the Strait trapping an estimated 13–15% of global supply, which is drawing down commercial and strategic inventories at an accelerating pace. One widely-cited research view holds that once pre-built inventory buffers run out — placed somewhere between late July and late August — prices rise sharply, and even a ceasefire wouldn't quickly fix the deficit because infrastructure recovery takes three to five months. A separate published view calls December 2026 futures at $80 badly mispriced, flagging $170–180 per barrel as plausible if drawdowns continue. Another contrarian thread points to a $125–150 spike as a tail risk if choke points stay blocked.
Where research disagrees: one camp argues a US–Iran deal reopening the Strait would let longer-dated contracts retrace toward pre-conflict levels — pointing to President Trump's own commentary about prices "tumbling down" as reinforcing that downside. The opposing view counters that production recovery lags would keep prices elevated for months even after a deal.