Published research this week is overwhelmingly bullish on crude, with most analysts arguing Brent and WTI have materially further to run as the Strait of Hormuz closure drags on.
The structural case is consistent across recent notes: the closure has removed an estimated 12–16% of global supply, and inventories are drawing down toward stress levels. One camp frames it as a "stocks to flows" problem — strategic reserve releases and demand destruction buy time but don't fix the imbalance. Researchers flag tightening European and Singapore stocks heading into peak summer demand.
On price, the published consensus puts Brent around $100 for the rest of the year in base cases, with each additional month of closure adding roughly $5–$15 to Q3–Q4 averages. More aggressive calls see a peak near $135 in August, and tail-risk scenarios stretch to $200 if the conflict widens and Gulf spare capacity stays offline. Analysts describe the current move as almost entirely war premium.
Refined products track higher in these forecasts: Dutch gasoline near €2.82/litre into Aug–Sept, elevated European diesel, and jet fuel bottlenecks from October if disruption persists.
The dissenting view isn't really a disagreement — a contrarian thread sees WTI falling toward $73 by Q4 2027, but only once the shock fully unwinds.