Published research is broadly aligned on one point: crude oil faces serious upside risk from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and rapidly depleting inventories.
The dominant view among analysts is that this is one of the largest physical energy supply shocks on record. Strategic reserves and inventory buffers are nearly exhausted heading into peak demand season. Several recent research notes argue that even if the Strait reopens, flows won't snap back — tanker logistics, storage constraints, and well restarts mean the market likely stays in deficit through Q3 and beyond.
On price, one camp of analysts sees Brent around $110 in Q2 and $100 in Q3, with WTI already pressing near $100. A more aggressive thread flags potential moves toward $150 if the blockade drags into late summer. Iran's retaliation warnings and the absence of a durable ceasefire are cited as anchoring the risk premium.
A contrarian thread suggests oil could drift back to $80 by year-end — but only if diplomacy delivers within weeks. A separate longer-horizon view sees Brent easing to $80–$85 once roughly three-quarters of lost supply returns.