Oil dominated the macro conversation this week, with the Strait of Hormuz disruption keeping the published consensus tilted bullish — though cracks emerged late in the window.
Most research framed the situation as a genuine supply shock: roughly 12 million barrels per day of Middle East crude disrupted, inventories drawing toward operational stress, and refined product stocks at historic lows. Bullish notes argued buffers (strategic reserves, floating storage) are largely exhausted, with some scenarios pointing to $150–$200 within weeks if the closure persists, and one technical view flagging a $200–$250 path should Brent break $130. Several authors saw prices staying above $100 for 6–12 months even after reopening, given the time needed to restore flows. US summer gasoline was forecast as high as $6/gallon. A separate structural argument tied the bull case to AI-driven energy demand and reserve rebuilds, with a $75–$80 floor longer-term.
By late week, the consensus softened as multiple analysts cited progress in US–Iran talks and Gulf state diplomacy, with downside scenarios pointing to $85–$90 if a deal lands — though most flagged a snap-back to $110+ if talks fail.