Oil research is split cleanly along one fault line: what happens to U.S.–Iran diplomacy.
On the bullish side, one camp of analysts argues the physical market is already extremely tight — collapsing Iranian exports, record inventory drawdowns, and historically low distillate stocks. Recent published research contends that recent futures weakness is sentiment driven by headlines, not actual supply, with near-dated contracts still in backwardation. A more aggressive thread suggests that if the Strait of Hormuz stays disrupted another month, prices could mechanically spike to $150–$200 to force demand destruction, and that even a reopening would keep crude above $100 for six to twelve months given logistical restoration. Other researchers frame elevated oil as a persistent stagflationary drag.
The bearish camp argues a credible deal is already pulling prices down — visible in heavier put activity, recovering tanker traffic, and Gulf diplomatic signals. Some recently published views target Brent around $104 this quarter if flows hit 4 million b/d by end-May, with WTI at $85–$90 if a deal is signed; absent one, $110+.
In products, researchers flag a sharp split: Asian propane remains 55% above pre-war levels while European propane has fallen as U.S. cargoes flood in.