Published research this week leans bearish on crude oil, with the dominant thread tying lower prices to a potential US–Iran deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and bring Iranian barrels back to market.
The reasoning across multiple research notes is consistent: a deal would lift Iranian crude flows, shrink the geopolitical risk premium, and tip the global market into oversupply. Some analysts point to rising vessel traffic and the possible unfreezing of Iranian assets as near-term supply catalysts. One published target sees WTI sliding to $80–$85 on deal confirmation, and Kevin Hassett has been cited as expecting energy prices to "plummet" once an agreement is signed.
A contrarian thread flips the thesis on diplomatic failure. One camp argues WTI could surge back above $100 if Hormuz talks collapse, while another view holds that a closed Strait would keep Brent in the nineties long enough to force demand destruction by around September.
The split is less a true disagreement than a deal/no-deal scenario fork — the bears are betting diplomacy holds.