Published research is overwhelmingly bullish on crude, with most analysts expecting prices to stay elevated or climb further as the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions drag on.
The shared thesis across recent research: roughly 12–13 million barrels per day of Middle East supply is at risk, US inventories are falling, and renewed US military action against Iran remains on the table. One widely-cited data point is the EIA's upward revision of its 2026 Brent forecast to around $95/barrel — read by analysts as the geopolitical risk premium becoming embedded in longer-term price targets. A contrarian thread of recent research extends the bullish call into refined products, projecting US gasoline could average $6/gallon this summer as refiners tilt toward jet fuel. Some recently-published views warn markets may still be underpricing the supply risk, arguing investor obsession with AI has bred complacency on oil shocks.
On tactical horizons, the consensus sees Brent and WTI supported near highs while the conflict persists, with one camp flagging a possible spike toward $200/barrel in a severe escalation. On a multi-year view, a separate strand argues for a secular oil bull market driven by AI energy demand and global reserve rebuilding.
The lone genuine dissent: one research view calls for a gentle Brent decline through year-end, tied to a UK macro scenario of flatlining growth without recession — a different macro baseline, not a different read on geopolitics.