Published oil research is leaning heavily bullish, and the pivot point is the same across nearly every view: how long the Strait of Hormuz stays disrupted.
The dominant thesis from recent research is a severe supply shock. One camp argues Brent could push toward $150 a barrel if the blockade persists, citing roughly 14 million barrels per day of disrupted flows and fast-draining inventories. Other analysts note that advanced economies are still cushioning the hit by drawing down stockpiles — but once those buffers thin, price pressure intensifies. Compounding factors flagged in published work include vessel seizures, Iran-related headlines, and the UAE's exit from OPEC weakening the cartel's hand. A broader thread frames oil inside a commodities supercycle, arguing refined products like diesel and jet fuel are structurally mispriced.
The bearish case exists but is conditional: researchers holding it expect prices to drop only if diplomacy reopens the Strait, with one contrarian view projecting a fall below $60 post-conflict on pent-up supply and US deregulation. Short-horizon technical work sees WTI support near $97–98 and resistance at $104.