Crude oil is the rare call where published research is nearly unanimous: the consensus across recent analyst notes is bullish, with Brent quoted above $109–$111/bbl and WTI above $100–$105.
The driver, researchers argue, is the extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz — now near eleven weeks by one estimate — which is reportedly drawing down global inventories at roughly 10 million barrels per day. Several published analyses warn that even if shipments resumed today, the lag before cargoes reach market means relief wouldn't be immediate. A lapsed US waiver on Russian crude, infrastructure attacks, drone strikes on UAE nuclear sites, and sharpening rhetoric from President Trump are all flagged as raising re-escalation risk.
On targets, one camp sees $130–$150/bbl if the blockade drags on; a more aggressive thread points to $150–$250 by year-end if tanks bottom out. A contrarian scenario — Brent back to $70 by September — exists, but the same analysts call it conditional on a diplomatic breakthrough they view as unlikely soon.