Oil: research consensus stayed firmly bullish all week, anchored to a closed Strait of Hormuz and an unresolved Iran conflict.
Across roughly twenty independent notes, analysts pointed to record-pace inventory draws, a "severely undersupplied" market into at least October per IEA references, and the harder-to-replace loss of refined products — diesel and jet fuel — moving through Hormuz. Brent was cited in the $108–$118 zone, with one published scenario pointing to $120–$130 if draws continue and another medium-term model lifting WTI toward roughly $98 by Q2 2026. A separate thread argued underinvestment and depleted buffers set a higher long-run baseline into 2027 regardless of the ceasefire path.
The downside case was explicitly event-driven: a credible Middle East deal or a Hormuz reopening could, researchers wrote, snap WTI back to $70–$80 as the risk premium unwinds. Refined-product tightness and demand destruction at the pump were flagged as the channels feeding broader inflation prints.