Published research is broadly bullish on crude while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, with the only bearish takes hinging on a ceasefire or diplomatic deal reopening energy flows.
The shared thread across recent analyst notes is supply: the IEA, cited in multiple research pieces, warns the market could stay "severely undersupplied" through at least October even if fighting ends soon, because damaged infrastructure and stretched refining capacity create lasting bottlenecks. Several research desks flag rapidly eroding inventories this summer, while others emphasize the inflation pass-through from sustained high energy prices. One published view puts a concrete upside target of $120–$130 a barrel on Brent if constraints persist over the next one to three months.
Refined products carry an extra premium in the research: analysts argue diesel and jet fuel can't be drawn down from inventory the way crude can, so they should fall more slowly than crude once conflict eases. A contrarian scenario thread sees Brent sliding toward $83 by end-2026 and $64 by end-2027 if the conflict gradually resolves.