Published research this week is overwhelmingly bullish on crude, with the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz cited across analyst notes as the dominant supply shock keeping prices elevated.
Researchers argue the IEA's warning of severe undersupply through at least October anchors the cyclical case even in an optimistic resolution. One camp of analysts puts base-case Brent at $90 by year-end, with risk scenarios above $150 if disruptions drag on. A separate strand of analysis ties 2026 Brent futures near $90 — about 30% above pre-conflict levels — to a roughly 10% cut in global supply, noting diesel and jet fuel benchmarks already running 60–80% higher.
On the U.S. side, some recently-published views flag a structural shift: American crude exports have hit record highs as buyers substitute away from Gulf barrels, widening the Brent-WTI spread past $5.
A contrarian thread sees WTI swinging to $70–$80 if Iran talks succeed, or spiking to $120–$150 if they collapse. Longer-horizon research points to normalization by 2027 — framed as a tail, not an imminent turn.