Published research is overwhelmingly bullish on oil right now, and the reason is singular: the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the Iran conflict.
Multiple research notes converge on the same picture — roughly 20% of global crude can't reach market, inventories are drawing at a record pace, and Asian importers are scrambling for alternatives. One widely-cited warning, attributed to Saudi Aramco's CEO, puts cumulative losses near 1 billion barrels if the closure runs past mid-June. The published consensus sees the market severely undersupplied through October even if the war ended tomorrow, with spot crude effectively trading near $150. Baseline forecasts in circulation cluster around a $118 peak, with tail-risk scenarios reaching $200 on escalation.
Researchers argue US exports and reserve releases can't sustainably plug the gap, making inventory rebuilds a structural bullish overhang into 2027. Refined products extend the theme: analysts flag further US gasoline spikes into summer and a potential doubling in marine fuels under sustained closure.
A contrarian thread sees Brent easing to $90 by end-2026 and $80 by end-2027 — but only as the shock fades, not as a challenge to the near-term call.