Published research is overwhelmingly bullish on crude, and the reason is the same across the board: the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed after the US rejected Iran's latest peace proposal, sustaining what the IEA has called the largest supply shock on record.
Most analysts tracking the situation point to stalled diplomacy as the key price support, with Brent above $105/bbl. One recently published view cites Saudi Aramco's CEO as not expecting normalisation until 2027 if disruptions persist. Another camp warns the inventory buffer cushioning prices is steadily eroding. Forecasts in circulation have been revised up 20–30% through 2027, with Brent projected near $110/bbl in Q2 2026 and WTI around $101/bbl. A broader strategic thread frames elevated oil as a structural inflation force through at least 2028.
The bearish case in the research isn't really a disagreement — it's conditional. Analysts holding it argue prices could fall to $70–75/bbl if a ceasefire or US–Iran deal materialises, versus a spike toward $120–150/bbl on military escalation. Most treat the diplomatic path as unlikely near-term.