Oil dominated macro research this week, with Brent above $100 and the Strait of Hormuz closure framed as the defining supply shock.
Analysts broadly argued prices will stay elevated for months, even in a rapid resolution scenario. The IEA was cited as estimating roughly 14 million barrels/day removed from regional supply, only partly offset by US exports and reserve releases. One published forecast lifted the 2026 Brent average to $95 from $80, with Gulf flows only gradually restarting from mid-June and near-normal by end-Q3. Another raised the long-term Brent anchor to $75, noting reserve rebuilds could stretch to 2028.
Middle distillates drew the loudest warnings: diesel, jet fuel, and LPG flagged as shortage risks across Asia, Africa, and Europe, with refined products potentially staying bid even if crude softens.
Late in the week, a contrarian thread emerged: some research highlighted a possible Iran-US off-ramp — enrichment pause, Hormuz reopening — and argued any deal would trigger a sharp tactical sell-off as risk premia unwind.