Crude's path here is a coin flip on geopolitics, according to recently published research — and both sides of the trade hinge on the same event.
The published view runs like this: if Strait of Hormuz disruption persists, analysts argue tight supply-demand balances and surging power demand from AI and data-center buildouts could keep oil elevated for months. That scenario, researchers suggest, would push U.S. gasoline toward $4–5 a gallon, and if it drags past four months, materially raise recession risk.
The mirror image, per the same line of research, is a confirmed Iran peace deal or a reopening of the Gulf. That would rapidly drain the risk premium from crude and, analysts expect, fuel a simultaneous rally in U.S. Treasuries as safe-haven flows unwind.
Worth noting: this isn't a bull-versus-bear split among forecasters. It's one scenario framework with two branches — a multi-month cyclical upside if tensions hold, and a sharp event-driven downside if they don't. The trigger to watch is diplomatic, not cyclical.