Published research is overwhelmingly bullish on crude — Brent, WTI, and refined products — as the Strait of Hormuz closure and US-Iran hostilities choke off supply.
Analysts estimate roughly 14 million barrels a day of regional supply has been removed, with global inventories at decade-plus lows. One recently published forecast lifts average Brent to $95 for the year, arguing Gulf output only restarts gradually from mid-June and won't normalize until late Q3. A broad camp of researchers stresses that even a rapid peace deal would leave supply chains disrupted for months. Several warn that a ceasefire headline would trigger a sharp tactical sell-off — but a contrarian thread cautions the consensus is wrong to expect a quick drop to the mid-$70s, given lingering hoarding and elevated insurance costs.
Refined products look tighter still. Published views flag diesel, jet fuel, naphtha, and LPG as likely to stay elevated through summer even if crude softens, with middle distillates facing the greatest shortage risk.
One outlier strategic view sees a 12–24 month supply glut as Chinese demand peaks — well outside the near-term consensus.