Natural gas looks set to stay bid, with most published research this week tying the call to the Iran conflict and its ripple effects across global energy markets.
Researchers argue that manufacturers reliant on chemical inputs face rising gas costs as a direct consequence of the conflict, and even economies with modest Gulf LNG exposure like Spain are expected to feel higher prices. One detailed European forecast projects TTF holding around €45/MWh in 2026 and just above €35/MWh in 2027 — roughly €10–15/year above pre-conflict baselines — citing Strait of Hormuz spillovers, supply uncertainty, and inventory drawdowns.
A separate strand of analysis sees European prices easing modestly near term as the Iran-US ceasefire restores some LNG flows and new US liquefaction capacity comes online, but flags limits: Qatari capacity is partly offline, European utilities are restocking, and Asian summer demand is strong.
On Henry Hub, a contrarian technical read points to $3.02–$3.05 as an accumulation zone with a target above $4, despite oversold daily charts.