Researchers leaned bullish on natural gas this week, with the supply shock from Middle East disruption and structural AI/LNG demand dominating the narrative.
On the European side, multiple analysts argued TTF will stay elevated, citing record-low storage (around 33–43% full versus a 57–60% average), weak summer injection incentives, and reduced LNG availability after damage to Qatari capacity. Several forecasts now see 2026 European gas averaging in the mid-40s euros/MWh — roughly 10–15 euros above pre-conflict projections — with elevated prices persisting into 2027 or even 2028.
In the US, a published thesis called for accumulating Henry Hub in the $3.00–$3.25 range with a $4.00 target, anchored on data center power demand, rising LNG exports, and a structural discount to international prices. Analysts also flagged Gulf Coast basis strength as new export terminals ramp, and a coming reversal of negative Waha pricing as Permian takeaway expands.
A contrarian thread warned US gas could revisit $2 on soft industrial demand and normal weather.