Two storylines are dominating macro commentary right now: the breakdown of the US–Iran ceasefire and a step-change in AI infrastructure spending.
On oil, the published research consensus is that the collapse of the truce and near-halt of Strait of Hormuz traffic pushed Brent into the $78–$80 range, feeding straight into inflation expectations. Most analysts argue this pushes the Fed toward higher-for-longer, with June minutes already showing a hawkish split. A contrarian thread pushes back: some recently-published views hold that Chinese demand destruction is capping the spike, and one Fed official has publicly downplayed the oil risk entirely, framing AI-driven demand as the bigger inflation worry.
On AI, researchers broadly agree hyperscaler capex — tracking toward $800bn in 2026 and potentially over $1 trillion in 2027 — is now a structural driver of power demand, memory, and bond supply, lifting growth while adding a new inflationary impulse.
Regionally, analysts flag EM Asia energy importers as most exposed, eurozone hawks tilting toward a September hike, and the RBNZ standing out after a 25bp hike. Next Tuesday's US June CPI is the flagged pivot test.