Three macro storylines are dominating research desks this week: where the Fed goes next, oil risk from the Strait of Hormuz, and whether the AI capex boom can survive earnings season.
On the Fed, the published research consensus is that policy is on hold but not clearly easing. A soft June payrolls print of 57,000 has cut near-term hike odds, but with core PCE above 3% and one-year inflation expectations climbing to 3.7%, analysts argue cuts aren't on the table either. New Chair Warsh's retreat from explicit forward guidance is itself flagged by several researchers as a driver of higher rates volatility.
On oil, fresh strikes on commercial vessels near the Strait pushed Brent toward $72–75. Most researchers argue the risk premium is capped: Saudi Arabia just cut August selling prices to a six-year low and OPEC+ is unwinding cuts. A contrarian thread warns the shipping attacks could still reignite inflation.
On AI, Samsung's 19-fold profit surge met with an 8–11% share price drop has crystallised a worry raised across recent research: expectations are stretched, and Q2 earnings could become a sell-the-news moment.