Two stories are dominating macro commentary right now: the US-Iran Strait of Hormuz ceasefire and what the June FOMC meeting will signal under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
On oil, a wide chorus of published research flags the US-Iran memorandum as the key macro event of the week, with Brent dropping below $80–$83 and a sharp compression in geopolitical risk premium. Analysts caution the deal is fragile, Israel is excluded, and physical reopening of the Strait could take 40–50 days. One contrarian thread argues the price relief is a head-fake given low inventories and peak summer demand; another camp sees a genuine glut forming, with some forecasts pointing to WTI in the $60s by year-end as Iranian barrels return.
On the Fed, the research consensus is that June is the most consequential near-term event, with focus on whether Warsh drops the easing bias and reshapes the dot plot. Core inflation near 3% limits room for a dovish pivot. Views diverge sharply on what comes next: one outlook pencils in a hike in late 2026, while others argue markets are overpricing any hike at all.