Today's macro conversation is dominated by one question: does a US–Iran ceasefire reset the global rates picture?
A broad swath of published research argues that a deal reopening the Strait of Hormuz could push Brent crude toward or below $90, cooling headline inflation and forcing markets to reprice central bank paths. The consensus view across recent notes is that the incoming Fed chair Warsh is pivoting hawkish — traders have moved from expecting cuts to pricing a hold, or even a hike, with the June FOMC the key event. One contrarian thread is more skeptical on oil, noting Iran wasn't explicitly named in the announcement, and pegs Brent nearer $103 for Q3.
Layered on top: analysts remain split on the AI investment boom. One camp argues stretched equity valuations and S&P concentration are justified by Mag7 earnings and capex; another warns of bubble conditions.
Elsewhere, researchers broadly expect a BOJ hike to 1%, an ECB follow-up move in September, and a Bank of England hold with July live. A US copper tariff decision is also flagged by month-end.