Two forces are dominating macro research right now: a sharp repricing of US Federal Reserve policy after a blockbuster May jobs report, and the still-live Iran-Israel conflict feeding through to oil, inflation, and central bank paths.
The published research consensus is that May nonfarm payrolls (172k vs ~88k expected, plus 93k in upward revisions to prior months) has pushed expectations toward "higher for longer," with a growing camp of analysts now flagging a possible hike by year-end. The 2-year Treasury yield jumped, the dollar index rose 0.7%, and rate-sensitive tech sold off. Researchers point to May CPI (Wednesday, ~4.2% headline expected) and the June 16-17 FOMC — the first under new Chair Kevin Warsh — as the next big catalysts.
On geopolitics, analysts note missile exchanges briefly drove Brent near $98 before a fragile ceasefire eased prices, though Strait of Hormuz disruption persists. A contrarian thread warns of inventory depletion and $170-180/bbl tail risk; others argue supply has adapted.
A third theme cutting across the research: the AI infrastructure capex boom is reshaping US labor demand and energy needs.