Two macro forces are dominating research desks this week: the US-Iran standoff and its energy/inflation spillovers, alongside an AI-driven US growth story that is reshaping the Fed debate.
A broad swath of published research flags the Strait of Hormuz as the single biggest commodity risk premium driver right now, with oil swinging 4–7% on individual headlines. Some analysts argue Iran's internal power struggle between hardliners and civilian moderates makes a durable deal structurally hard to reach. A contrarian thread, however, treats a 60-day ceasefire as largely priced in; others counter that the Strait stays effectively closed through September, with oil targeting $100–110 on a full closure.
On the US side, researchers highlight AI capex — data centres and AI-server orders — as an autonomous growth impulse keeping manufacturing in expansion (ISM at a four-year high) and supporting earnings. One camp of analysts now leans toward pricing in Fed hikes given sticky inflation and a firm labour market; others emphasise the Fed's data-dependent hold and point to softer trimmed-mean inflation as grounds for a more dovish read.
Globally, the published consensus expects 25bp hikes from the ECB and BOJ in June, a divergence from the Fed's pause that is driving FX. For Japan, one view flags unique vulnerability to Hormuz disruption given import reliance, trimming FY2026 GDP to +0.6%.
Key catalysts: US payrolls, ISM Services, JOLTS, eurozone CPI, and the June ECB and BOJ decisions.