Three macro stories are dominating published research this week: a Middle East energy shock, the AI capex boom, and a stubbornly strong US labor market reshaping Fed expectations.
On energy, the published research consensus points to Strait of Hormuz disruption as the primary shock, with oil pushing toward $96–$98/bbl, widening sovereign spreads in energy-dependent eurozone economies, and lifting global inflation. Several recent analyses extend base-case disruption timelines into Q3 2026, and one outlook argues Brent could reach $120/bbl in Q3.
On AI, multiple research threads converge on hyperscaler capex — now projected at $800bn to $1.2 trillion across 2026–2027 — as a dominant driver of S&P 500 earnings, credit issuance, and novel financing structures.
On the Fed, researchers are split. Strong JOLTS (7.62M openings), ADP (122k), and ISM Services (54.5) are pushing out cut expectations. One camp argues the Fed will look through energy-driven inflation and cut before year-end; a contrarian thread flags genuine hike risk if labor and services data stay hot.
Key catalysts ahead: May payrolls, the June 16–17 FOMC, and Hormuz shipping updates.