Two forces are pulling markets in opposite directions right now, according to a wide read of this week's published macro research.
On one side, researchers are calling the Strait of Hormuz closure an unprecedented energy shock — one analysis sizes it at roughly three times the 2022 Russian oil disruption and lifts its Brent forecast to $120/bbl for Q3 2026. The published consensus links this directly to stickier inflation, with central banks now expected to signal back-to-back 25bp hikes through mid-2026 and the Fed holding off on cuts until at least December. A more bearish thread argues oil could reach $200 under an extended blockade, while a contrarian base case sees the strait reopening in July and Brent settling near $90.
Pulling the other way: blowout AI and chip earnings. One camp of analysts highlights Micron's quarter (EPS $12.20 vs $8.65 expected, operating margins near 68%) as the catalyst that pushed the Nasdaq 100 above 30,000, widening the gap between US/Asian tech and lagging European equities.
A third research cluster flags stretched US valuations (21–22x forward earnings vs a 16x historical average) and a 6–7% fiscal deficit as growing risks to the dollar, citing central bank gold buying as confirmation.