Published research this week leans toward a modestly higher EUR/USD, with the main debate being timing rather than direction.
One strand of analysis argues the euro's recent drop looks overdone relative to short-term interest rate differentials, which have actually tightened during the equity selloff. On that read, the pair is undervalued by roughly 2.1–2.3% — more than French political risk and the fiscal/protest backdrop can justify — and the drama around France's leadership transition should fade quickly. That camp sees EUR/USD back above 1.12 within the week, assuming risk sentiment doesn't deteriorate further.
A separate, longer-horizon research track points the same way but on a slower timetable: a gradual climb from around 1.12 toward 1.14 by late 2026 and 1.20 by September 2027.
A more cautious thread declines to take a side, framing the euro as currently trading like a risk-sentiment proxy — rising and falling with equities — and warning that French fiscal worries remain a drag while stocks stay unsettled.
Net: tactical and cyclical research both tilt higher; the swing factor is equity market stability.
By the numbers:
• Positioning (CFTC, as of 3 Nov 2026): Euro: speculators (leveraged funds) are net short, 9.0% of open interest. That is the largest net short in a year: crowded short (COT index 0 of 100). The net position fell by 6,985 contracts on the week.