EUR/USD spent the week pinned near 1.12, with published research split on whether the pair can break higher into year-end.
Several forecast tables pointed to a grind toward 1.14 by December 2026 and 1.20 by late 2027, built on a weaker dollar after the US midterms, lower US yields, and firmer eurozone inflation keeping a December ECB hike in play. One view flagged Klaas Knot as a hawkish, euro-positive candidate to succeed Lagarde, and another argued Europe would relatively benefit if an AI-driven US tech shock forced dollar repatriation.
The more cautious camp kept pointing at France: Fitch's negative outlook, OAT-Bund spreads above 150bp, and the April election were cited as reasons the euro remains a funding currency rather than a conviction long, with 3-month targets as low as 1.10. One longer-horizon thread argued European financial repression would ultimately debase the euro.
Technically, analysts flagged 1.1270–1.1325 as the level bulls need to clear to confirm a trend.