Published research on EUR/USD is split by timing, not direction: the near term looks heavy or rangebound for the euro, but the medium-term path points to a gradual recovery through 2027 and into 2028.
On the cautious side, analysts point to a well-supported dollar — strong US growth, inflation above 3%, and a Fed in no rush to cut — alongside a French political risk premium ahead of April's elections and softer European growth. One camp notes much of that French risk may already be in the price.
The recovery case, as laid out in recent research, rests on US short rates easing as energy base effects fade, lower energy prices, clearer French politics, and narrowing growth and yield spreads with the US.
On specifics: some published forecasts see EUR/USD offered in a 1.10–1.15 range near term, with one view at 1.10 in Q1 2027 and 1.12 by year-end. More constructive medium-term calls target 1.18 by end-2027, and another by end-2028. A tactical thread flags short-squeeze risk, noting leveraged funds hold their largest euro shorts since early 2020.
By the numbers:
• Positioning (CFTC, as of 3 Nov 2026): Euro: speculators (leveraged funds) are net short, 9.0% of open interest. That is the largest net short in a year: crowded short (COT index 0 of 100). The net position fell by 6,985 contracts on the week.