EUR/USD is caught between a softer near-term dollar story and a tougher medium-term one, and the published research is genuinely split right now.
On the bullish side for the euro, several recent research notes point to the weaker-than-expected US CPI print as a tactical lift. The argument: if the Fed is less likely to hike again, a core pillar of dollar strength weakens. One analysis highlights EUR/USD holding support above 1.1400 as evidence the pair has room to grind higher from here.
The bearish camp focuses on the longer horizon. One strand of cyclical research argues the US-EU rate gap is widening — helped by fewer expected European hikes and expectations of a more restrictive Fed under a Warsh appointment — and has already dragged the euro to roughly 1.14, around a one-year low. A more structural view adds that hawkish US foreign policy, fresh tariffs, and geopolitical pressure on Europe could keep the euro on the defensive into late 2026.
The two views aren't really fighting — they're operating on different clocks.