Published research this week leans firmly bullish on EUR/USD, with no outright bearish calls in the mix.
The cyclical case, as one camp of analysts frames it, rests on a Fed pause after September, a follow-up ECB hike, and lower dollar-hedging costs — a mix they argue pushes the pair back toward 1.17 by year-end. A separate strategic thread points to improving Eurozone growth and capital rotating out of US assets, with researchers projecting 1.17 by end-2026 and 1.22 by early 2028, no higher euro rates required. A parallel view sees a similar path — 1.16 by Q4 2026, 1.20 by Q4 2027 — citing dollar diversification and gradual Middle East normalization, though this one is explicitly conditional on that backdrop playing out.
Worth flagging: the same tactical research warning that rising European energy prices and a thin data calendar could first drag EUR/USD toward 1.1300–1.1360 before the broader uptrend reasserts itself. Near-term chop, medium-term lift is the published consensus.