Published research this week is broadly bullish on the euro against the dollar — the debate is about timing, not direction.
The consensus in recent analyst notes points to EUR/USD grinding higher, with a fading dollar, softening US economic outperformance, and reserve managers diversifying away from USD as the main drivers. On the strategic horizon, one set of forecasts sees the pair reaching 1.16 by late 2026 and 1.20 by late 2027, with another looking further out to 1.21–1.22 by end-2028 on the back of a European recovery and contained inflation.
Cyclically, a separate camp of researchers argues for a nearer-term rebound into the 1.14–1.18 zone, pointing to a stronger-than-expected Q2 in the euro area, improving business confidence, and the possibility of one final ECB hike in September as catalysts.
The dissent is tactical, not structural. A contrarian thread of recent research suggests the euro stays capped around 1.13–1.14 while Fed rate-cut timing remains murky — essentially the same starting point the bulls concede before their case kicks in.