Where is the euro heading against the dollar? Published research is genuinely split — and the disagreement is real, not just a timing mismatch.
The cyclical majority of recently-published views leans bullish on EUR/USD. Researchers argue the Fed is at or near peak rates while the ECB stays relatively hawkish, narrowing the rate gap and lifting the euro. Targets across this camp cluster at 1.17–1.18 by end-2026, with some pushing toward 1.19–1.22 by mid-2027.
A contrarian thread of recent research pushes the other way. One camp of analysts sees the dollar staying strong on a hawkish Fed, US leadership in AI and energy, and soft Eurozone growth — with a published target sliding toward 1.10–1.12 in H2 2026, explicitly flagged as "out-of-consensus bearish."
Some recently-published views actually hold both at once: tactically bearish (EUR/USD below 1.15 near-term on Fed hawkishness) but cyclically bullish later as policy paths diverge.
Bottom line from the published research: the euro's path depends on whether you believe in US exceptionalism — or its fade.