Published research is split on EUR/USD, and the disagreement is unusually clean.
One camp of analysts argues the pair has further to fall, pointing to the Fed's hawkish turn — dropped forward guidance, rising Treasury yields, and resilient US retail sales — as the trigger for EUR/USD slipping below 1.15. A parallel strand of recent research expects the pair to hover near or below 1.15 through the summer, with more downside if US growth or inflation data push markets toward pricing additional tightening.
A contrarian thread of published work sees it the other way, targeting 1.20 by year-end. The bullish case rests on policy divergence playing out in reverse: a cautious ECB alongside a Fed expected to ease over the medium term, fading energy risks, and a growing US risk premium tied to fiscal and external imbalances. Some recently-published views add a structural leg — heavy Treasury issuance and softer foreign demand for US debt could extend euro gains further out.
The real split isn't timing. It's whether today's dollar strength is durable.