EUR/USD: published research is genuinely split today, with no clear consensus on direction.
On the bullish side, one camp of analysts argues the euro is the preferred way to express an underweight dollar view, citing policy divergence and portfolio positioning. A separate strategic call published this week looks further out, targeting EUR/USD around 1.20 by 2027 as safe-haven dollar demand fades, geopolitical tensions ease, and the energy supply shock works through.
The contrarian thread of recent research takes the other side. It argues Fed dynamics are currently dominating FX: a more hawkish Powell-led Fed plus weaker European growth could push EUR/USD below 1.150, especially if US-Iran tensions resurface or eurozone data disappoints relative to the US.
What makes this interesting: the bullish cyclical view and the bearish view share the same near-term window. Both camps are looking at the same Fed stance and growth gap — and reaching opposite conclusions. This is a real directional disagreement, not just different time horizons.