EUR/USD spent the week pinned near the bottom of its 1.14–1.18 range before late-week research turned more constructive on the euro.
Early in the week, much of the published research leaned bearish, pointing to soft German activity data, Middle East-driven energy risk, and a repricing toward a more hawkish Fed. Several notes argued EUR/USD could test 1.15 or drift toward 1.13–1.14, with US 2-year yields pulling decisively ahead of euro-area equivalents. One thread also flagged that a 25bp ECB hike was already fully priced, leaving little room for euro upside on hawkish rhetoric alone.
By the second half of the week, the consensus shifted notably more constructive. Multiple analysts highlighted renewed optimism around a US–Iran deal lifting the pair back toward 1.16, and argued the euro is increasingly behaving like a safe asset. Medium-term forecasts clustered around 1.17–1.18 into end-2026 and 1.20–1.22 by 2027, citing dollar diversification, a narrowing rate differential, and pent-up European investment demand.