Published research is converging on a bullish euro view, though with different conditions attached.
Multiple research notes out this week argue EUR/USD has meaningful upside against the dollar. One strand of analysis points to fading US rate exceptionalism and improving European nominal growth as structural tailwinds, with a path toward 1.22 by mid-2028. A separate published view targets 1.21 by late 2026 and 1.25 by late 2027, leaning on dollar diversification flows and a gradual easing of Middle East tensions.
A more conditional camp of analysts agrees on direction but frames the second-half 2026 recovery as contingent on a geopolitical deal materializing. Their argument: once energy risk fades and the ECB's already-priced tightening settles in, the euro should prove resilient. Without that catalyst, near-term downside risks persist.
The takeaway across these published views: not a directional disagreement, but a timing and conditionality split. All three paths lead higher — they differ on what needs to happen first.