Published research this week makes the case for a lower EUR/USD over the coming weeks, with one camp of analysts flagging a potential retest of the recent low near 1.1575.
The reasoning, as laid out in recent third-party notes: US economic data has come in firm, markets are starting to price in the possibility that the Fed may need to hike again rather than cut, and last year's popular "dollar debasement" trades — bets that a weakening dollar story would dominate — are quietly being unwound. That combination, researchers argue, leaves the euro on the back foot.
A second strand of recently-published analysis adds an energy angle: if Gulf tensions push oil prices higher from here, the eurozone wears that cost more painfully than the US does, given Europe's heavier reliance on imported energy. That would be an additional drag on the single currency.
The call is explicitly conditional. It hinges on upcoming US data — particularly ADP payrolls and ISM — staying strong, and on oil holding at elevated levels. Softer prints would weaken the thesis.