Published research is split on EUR/USD — but mostly by time horizon, not direction.
In the near term, analysts argue the hawkish Fed story is overwhelming any euro positives, with the pair unlikely to hold above roughly 1.1650. A separate strand of recent research layers on cyclical pressure: elevated oil prices and Europe's reliance on energy imports are expected to push EUR/USD toward 1.14 in the coming months, reinforced by German GDP downgrades, sticky inflation, and a softening labour market.
The longer-dated view from the same research turns constructive. The published case argues EUR/USD could reach 1.20 by end-2026 — but explicitly conditional on energy supply normalising and the ECB turning more hawkish than the Fed. The 1.14 near-term call simply reflects today's opposite conditions.
So the apparent tactical-vs-strategic gap isn't really a disagreement. It's one framework with two regimes: pain now, recovery later if the energy shock fades and central bank paths diverge.