Across markets today, the published research consensus points to a higher-for-longer rates regime colliding with a geopolitics-driven commodity shock. Sticky US labor data and a hawkish Fed are lifting Treasury yields and the dollar together, while a closed Strait of Hormuz keeps energy and freight costs elevated.
Where researchers broadly agree: crude oil has further upside, with one widely circulated call raising Q3 Brent to $120/bbl. Treasury yields are biased higher absent a conflict resolution. The dollar firms near-term. And the S&P 500 still has a cyclical bull case, anchored to AI capex and earnings.
Where views split: on USD/JPY, one camp sees a tactical run toward 160, then a reversal once the Strait reopens and the Bank of Japan hikes. On 10-year yields, a contrarian thread argues a softening labor market pulls yields lower this year, against the majority calling for higher. Gold draws bearish takes tied to higher real rates.
One sharp warning stands out: some analysts argue crowded AI/tech names could sell off the moment an Iran ceasefire lands, since the war risk premium is what's fueled the trade.