Today's cross-asset signal from public research: a geopolitics-driven inflation regime. Strait of Hormuz disruptions are keeping crude, LNG, and coal elevated, and the published consensus is that this is feeding directly into tightening paths at major central banks while pushing US 10Y yields higher on fiscal supply and sticky inflation.
Where researchers agree: Brent stays bid until a credible US-Iran ceasefire lands. A 25bp ECB-area hike on June 11 is treated as near-certain. JGB yields are projected on a multi-year climb as fiscal expansion meets BoJ normalization. On US 10Y, one camp explicitly flags 5% as the next level before any retreat.
Where they split: a contrarian thread argues US yields fall through H2 2026 if energy cools and the Fed pivots — but other analysts see yields elevated regardless of geopolitics. On USD/JPY, some recently-published views target a rally toward 162 on US data strength, while others flag a BoJ hike as a live reversal risk.
One standout view: a Hormuz deal stays elusive through September, keeping that camp more bullish crude, more bearish Treasuries than peers.