Markets are flipping on a single catalyst: the Strait of Hormuz reopening has drained the geopolitical premium from oil and gold, lifted the dollar, and forced a sharp rethink across asset classes.
Where the published research lines up: most analysts now see Brent and WTI heading lower as Gulf supply normalises, with only a small contrarian camp arguing the risk isn't fully priced out. The consensus view on the dollar is firmly bullish near-term, tied to a hawkish Fed and US growth outperformance. Gold's tactical case has flipped bearish in recent notes — a stronger dollar and fading safe-haven bid — though a separate strand of research still holds a structural bull view on central bank buying. On Micron, an unusually broad set of researchers are bullish on AI memory demand.
Where the debate is real: US 10-year yields. One camp argues sticky inflation keeps yields elevated; another expects them to drift lower as growth risks and cheaper energy pull break-evens down. Big-tech and AI equities split similarly — constructive momentum calls versus crowded-positioning and bubble warnings.