What research expects
One vote per research house: its most recent published view on this meeting, from 35 views published between 23 Sep 2026 and 21 Oct 2026. Views about later meetings are not counted.
The debate
Most research expects the Fed to pause at the 27-28 October meeting after September's 25bp hike, which took the target range to 3.75-4.00%. A December hike is the usual next step. Many notes expect a pause now and a move in December.
A smaller group argues for an October hike. They point to hot September CPI and PPI, with headline inflation at 3.7%, and to the risk of larger catch-up hikes later. Several houses admit markets price only a small chance of a hike.
The case for a hold rests on the tone of recent Fed communication. Researchers read patient remarks from officials as showing little urgency. Others cite election timing and the argument that a supply shock calls for a paced response. Another camp says oil-driven inflation cannot be fixed with rates.
Officials lean hawkish on direction but not on timing. Waller said he expects more hikes that need not come at consecutive meetings. Barr said further adjustments are likely. Cook stressed that inflation has been too high for too long. Chair Warsh has declined to prejudge the meeting.
What to watch
- Whether the statement or Chair Warsh's press conference hints at a December hike, given his reluctance to give forward guidance.
- Whether any FOMC members dissent in favour of a hike, as three did in July.
- How the Fed describes its policy stance, and whether it signals one more hike or a longer cycle.
- Any reaction to oil prices and the AI-linked credit stress that have swung market pricing in recent weeks.
What Fed officials have said
- 13 Oct 2026 · MinutesHawkish +1.0Hike +25bp
The Board approved a 25bp hike in the primary credit rate to 4 percent and a rise in interest on reserve balances from 3.65 to 3.9 percent, effective September 17, 2026, supporting the FOMC's decision to raise the federal funds target range to 3-3/4 to 4 percent.
discount rateinterest rate hikeinflationlabour marketai buildoutMinutes of the Board's discount rate meetings on August 17, September 9, and September 16, 2026 → - 13 Oct 2026 · SpeechHawkish +1.5
If economic data continue to come in as expected, I anticipate additional hikes to support a timelier return of inflation to 2 percent. The hikes need not come at consecutive meetings but should be in place within an acceptable period of time.
inflationmonetary policycentral bank communicationlabour marketenergyThe signaling value of the summary of economic projections → - 8 Oct 2026 · SpeechHawkish +1.5Christopher J. Waller
If the economic data continue to come in as expected, I anticipate additional hikes to support a timelier return of inflation to our 2 percent goal; the hikes need not come at consecutive meetings.
inflationlabour marketforward guidancecommunicationenergyWaller, The Signaling Value of the Summary of Economic Projections → - 6 Oct 2026 · SpeechHawkish +1.2Michael S. Barr
In my base case, further policy adjustments are likely to be needed to ensure inflation comes down to target in a timely fashion. Risks to the inflation target have increased while labor market risks have receded, so policy needs recalibrating.
inflationartificial intelligencelabour marketenergymonetary policyEconomic conditions and monetary policy → - 5 Oct 2026 · SpeechHawkish +1.0
If the economy evolves broadly in line with my forecast, one further upward adjustment of the federal funds target range may be appropriate late this year to support a timelier return of inflation to target. There is no need for urgency.
inflationmonetary policyenergyai investmentlabour marketUnwavering dedication → - 1 Oct 2026 · SpeechHawkish +0.8Philip N. Jefferson
Any future policy adjustments should be determined by carefully examining data trends, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks; he will keep assessing whether inflation is returning to target with sufficient speed.
inflationenergylabour marketai investmentmonetary policyThe US economy and monetary policy → - 1 Oct 2026 · SpeechHawkish +0.8Philip N. Jefferson
Any future policy adjustments should be determined by carefully examining trends in the data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. He will keep assessing whether inflation will return to target with sufficient speed, and committee judgment may take more time.
inflationenergyai investmentlabour marketinflation expectationsJefferson, The U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy → - 30 Sep 2026 · SpeechHawkish +1.0Lisa D. Cook
Inflation has been too high for too long, exceeding the 2 percent target for more than five years. Cook voted with the FOMC to raise rates 25 basis points in September and is committed to returning inflation to target while preserving labor market strength.
inflationlabour marketrural economyhousing costssmall businessThe dual mandate in rural America →