Published research on US Treasuries is split mainly by horizon, not direction.
Near term, several recent analyses argue 10-year yields drift lower, citing a cooling stock market, slower AI-related capex, less debt issuance from hyperscalers, and softer oil if Middle East tensions ease. Over the medium and longer run, a different camp of researchers sees yields pushed higher by the AI buildout, looser fiscal policy, and persistent deficits. One long-horizon view argues that today's starting yields largely determine what 10-year Treasuries return from here.
At the front end, the published consensus leans toward higher 2-year yields, with October payrolls at 165k and unemployment at 4.1% keeping a December Fed hike on the table. Some strategists favor 2s10s flatteners.
On credit, views diverge: one thread of research expects US spreads to widen as risk appetite fades, while others prefer investment-grade bonds if the AI cycle slows. Several analysts also suggest inflation-linked bonds or TIPS as a hedge if CPI surprises to the upside.
By the numbers:
• Positioning (CFTC, as of 3 Nov 2026): Speculators (leveraged funds) are net short in all four contracts. US Treasury bond has the smallest net short in a year (COT index 94); US 2-year note (75) and US 5-year note (71) are near the top of their 52-week range; US 10-year note (19) is near the bottom of its 52-week range.
• Federal Reserve policy rate 3.75–4.00%, last move +25 bp on 17 Sep 2026. Next decision 9 Dec 2026.
• United States 10-year yield 4.88%, 2-year 4.56% (U.S. Department of the Treasury, 9 Nov 2026).
Charts: finchiefs.com/data/policy-rates/federal-reserve