Published research is converging on a clear message: US Treasury yields likely have further to climb, especially at the 2-year and 30-year ends of the curve.
The core argument across recent analyst notes points to a Fed that stays hawkish for longer, pushing 2-year yields toward new cycle highs near 4.77%. On the long end, one prominent published view cites structural forces — persistent federal deficits, enormous capital demand from AI buildout and government refinancing, and inflation still above target — as pressures that occasional buybacks cannot offset. A separate strand of research frames the move as driven by real yields rather than inflation expectations, with restrictive policy expected to persist.
Not everyone agrees on timing. A contrarian tactical read notes 10-year yields recently slipped about 5bps as the curve flattened, and another conditional call sees 10-year yields easing only if Iran-related diplomacy cools energy inflation.
On credit, some recently published views see value in investment-grade AI and hyperscaler issuers, US leveraged loans, and long-dated municipals — where yields may have already peaked.